Pop, pop, pop, goes the Population Growth in Texas!

 

Welcome New Texans!

The U.S. Census Bureau says that Texas added the most new residents in 2024 to our state compared to the other 49.  Texas now clocks in at 31.2-m residents compared to California’s 39.4-m.  Texas added 562,000 to our population in 2024! Welcome, new Texans!  This makes Texas the fastest growing state in the Union. Let’s break this down as to the sources of our growth. The Texas miracle includes migration from other states, international migration and natural births, with migration being the largest source of new Texans. A key source is in-migration from other states, with Texas and North Carolina as the locations attracting the most folks, and to folks moving from other states, DFW and Houston were the most popular metropolitan destinations in the nation, while San Antonio was fourth and Austin eight. Also, important to note that San Antonio has the largest numerical growth of any city in 2022 – 2023 with 21,970.

Mass Exodus from California

Not surprisingly, California had the biggest citizen drain with over 200,000 moving out last year.  We can only imagine that the horrible fires in L.A. will accelerate this exodus. After all, they already had a housing crisis, so 10,000 families needing new homes will fill up all the for-sale and rental homes and lots of apartments, too.  California has been facing a housing crisis from affordability and regulatory burden on new housing so this sad disaster will only push more families out of the Golden State. In fact, nearly a million and a half people have left California in the past five years.  New York is the other state with the most ex-migration with over 100,000 leaving in 2024 alone.  These emigrants may be heading to the growing Carolinas.

 

Natural Change

Now, one of the other sources of Texan growth is natural change, which is simply more babies are being born than people dying.  This has become unusual in that the U.S. along with Europe, Russia, China and Japan has a shrinking population due to the low birth rate.  Young folks are having fewer babies, or none at all, and the Boomer populations of the world are, shall we say, thinning out.  But not in Texas, where we seem to have robust new additions, with roughly 150,000 births exceeding deaths in 2024, which is more than any other state.

 

International Migration

Then, there is international migration, from whatever source. This makes up more than half our state’s growth at around 250,000. This is a political issue, as we are all acutely aware, but ask any business person and they will tell you that finding enough qualified people to fill job slots is their biggest problem.  I will leave the question of how we solve this problem to wiser people than me, that is, our politicians.

 

San Antonio Census and GDP Update

The City of San Antonio has now grown to a population of 1,513,974 and the entire metropolitan area of 8 counties stands at 2,703,000 as of 2023, the most recent census estimate. So, you can add around 2.5%, 65,000, to those numbers, (and yes, they are all on Loop 1604 in front of you).  As I have mentioned previously, we can measure the economic vitality of an area by looking at the Gross Metropolitan Product, which totals all of the goods and services produced by a single economic region. This is the GDP of a metropolitan area, the geographic region that functions as a single unit. The San Antonio Metropolitan Statistical Area is made up of Bexar and the surrounding 7 counties. We can see that Boerne, New Braunfels, Seguin and Pleasanton all function and contribute to our region, like we are a team.  Team San Antonio has nearly doubled our output of goods and services since 2012, from $93-billion to $182-billion! What a great job, Team San Antonio!  This ranks us #33 in the Top 50 MSAs nationally. About the same ranking over the past five years, as all the other areas are growing, too. For reference, Columbus, Ohio is number 34 and Kansas City is number 32.

 

Sister City GMP

Then, our sister city to the north, Austin, includes Georgetown, Round Rock, Pflugerville, Lockhart, Dripping Springs and San Marcos on its team. Austin’s GMP is now $248-billion, ranking it #22 nationally.  That is a 140% increase for the Capital city since 2012 and moves it from #31 to #22 on the Top 50 Chart. Wow.  It is between Tampa and Charlotte.  For reference, ol’ DFW ranks #5 at $745-billion and Houston is #7 at $697-billion.  The ASAMSA’s (Austin-San Antonio Metro) combined total is $430-billion just below Miami, #12.  Now, combine the whole Texas Triangle, and we would rank #2 in the nation, behind New York MSA and ahead of L.A.  Its Super Bowl season so I am keeping score.  Just sayn’.

 

Our steady and robust growth will keep San Antonio a vital and attractive place to live.  There are always those who want to pull up the draw bridge and say, “enough is enough; no more new people; we don’t want any more growth.  Just stop everything where it is.”  Wouldn’t that be nice.  I would suggest we compare a city’s growth to the growth of a child.  Don’t we want our children and grandchildren to stay at that sweet, fun and clever young age?  But time marches on, relentlessly.  Children must grow up, learn and then earn.  Just as they cannot stagnate, so neither can a city.  Many West Texas cities have done just that, but they have declined because they are not attractive places for their young children to stay, grow and live.

 

As time marches on for our City and Team San Antonio, our Metropolitan Area, we must produce more jobs every year, so our kids can find good employment opportunities, expand their horizons, put down roots, and raise new families.  While Austin has grown at a more explosive rate, they also come down harder in an economic decline.  San Antonio has been and will remain a culture of steady and sustainable growth, to which we all contribute and enjoy.

 

If we have a downfall, it is our excessive poverty rate.  No one likes this and the best and brightest minds in our fair city work to resolve it.  In a future newsletter, I am going to try my hand at defining the affordable housing problem, but solutions are elusive.